Inflation data

Inflation speeds up and growth beats forecasts, adding pressure on mortgage rates

· Enrique Pelayo Jr., NMLS #131435

Thursday's government reports showed inflation picking up in September and the economy growing faster than expected last quarter. Strong numbers like these tend to push bond yields and mortgage rates higher.

The Commerce Department's September personal income and spending report showed the Fed's preferred inflation gauge accelerating from August, and the core measure that strips out food and energy also rose. Consumer spending stayed firm.

A separate first estimate of third-quarter GDP came in stronger than economists expected, and weekly jobless claims fell, another sign that the job market is holding up.

Taken together, the reports back up the Fed's view of a strong economy with inflation that is not cooling. That is the mix that makes a December rate hike more likely and keeps upward pressure on the bonds that mortgage rates follow.

Our rates today

Lender sheets as of Oct 29, 8:32 AM PT
LoanRateAPRSince yesterday
30-year fixed6.875%6.915%unch.
15-year fixed6.250%6.346%unch.
30-year FHA6.375%6.952%−0.115
30-year VA6.490%6.649%unch.
30-year jumbo6.875%6.898%unch.
5-year ARM6.500%6.552%unch.

Purchase of a $750,000 primary home in King County with 20% down and a 760 credit score (jumbo: $1.8 million with 25% down; VA: eligible veteran, same price and down payment). Lowest rate with no points from today's wholesale lender sheets. Your rate depends on your credit, loan and property. Not a commitment to lend. Price your own scenario

Lean lockToday's take: The Fed held rates Wednesday, but two officials voted for a hike and bond yields rose afterward. See the full view

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Sources: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, Personal Income and Outlays, September 2026, and GDP advance estimate, third quarter 2026, October 29, 2026; Invezz market report, October 29, 2026.

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